Welcome back to Forests Over Trees, your weekly tech strategy newsletter. It’s time to zoom-out, connect dots, and (try to) predict the future.
Here’s the plan:
Tech News Takes — super-short analysis and commentary
Tool of the Week — tools you’ll find useful
Strategy Tips — strategy nuggets (for business and life)
F/T Shoutouts — sharing launches, tech events, and other reads
Intel’s CEO is Out
Plus: Australia age-gates social media; Twitch streamer breaks records
⚡ Tech News Takes ⚡
Intel’s CEO is Out
What’s up: Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger – in place since 2021 – got forced out over the weekend. Despite a few recent wins ($7.8B in CHIPS Act funds, deals with AWS and the Pentagon), he’s overseen several losses (failed deals with Apple and PlayStation and Waymo, a 30% drop in revenue amidst the AI boom, etc.). The CFO and CPO will be interim co-CEOs.
So what: The issue here was a lack of focus. Gelsinger tried to have Intel be everything for everybody... First, a better manufacturer than TSMC, with a bleeding edge 18A manufacturing process. Second, a better designer than Nvidia, with an innovative “Gaudi” AI chip. Third, a frugal operator like Elon (Intel had a $10B cost reduction plan to cut 15K jobs). The chip market is highly specialized now, so excellence requires focus.
Save the Whales Cables
What’s up: In response to suspected Russian-Chinese sabotage of European cables a few weeks ago, two international telecom unions (the ITU and the ICPC) announced the creation of an advisory council to advocate for cable protection. There are 150-200 cable faults per year, impacting the 99% of international data traffic that uses the cables to exchange data.
So what: Because of redundancies and the nearly 600 cables that exist, internet service was mostly unaffected. So that’s good. But honestly, risk to physical connections makes me think of the alternatives… or lack thereof. Satellite internet is an option, but it needs to mature — more bandwidth, more competition, cooler-headed executives (cough, Elon), etc.
Record-breaking Twitch Streamer
What’s up: Kai Cenat broke Twitch’s streaming record – reaching 50 million unique viewers and 727K subscribers during a 30-day subathon (streaming marathon). He streamed 24/7 during the entire month of November and had guests like Bill Nye, Kevin Hart, and Snoop Dogg. He earned an estimated $3.6M from the subathon.
So what: It’s poetic that streamers like Kai are blowing up (in a good way) while 24/7 news channels are blowing up (in a bad way; with anchors departing and budgets getting cut). And although Twitch and similar new-age platforms are benefiting now, I think over time creators will want even more autonomy and decentralization. There will be huge financial incentives to reach their audiences directly – without middlemen taking a cut.
Australia’s Social Media Ban for Kids
What’s up: Australia passed a bill last week that will ban anyone younger than 16 from using social media. It is expected to go into effect in 2026. Under the ban, social media app-makers like Meta and Reddit would be liable and could be fined up to $33M USD for failing to enforce the ban. Lawmakers and advocates cited mental health concerns among kids as the motivating force behind the ban.
So what: This is admirable, but I look forward to seeing if/how they execute it. It’s also another example of how differently each continent approaches (and follows through on) regulation. In the US, no tech regulation has withstood the lobbying pressure of the tech industry (ex. TikTok’s ban, the 2022 Big Tech bill, etc.). In the EU, they’ve followed through on every regulatory idea big and small – leaving a trail of pain points in their wake. For example, we have the EU to thank for everyone globally needing to constantly approve cookies. It remains to be seen whether Australia follows through (as they’ve done with gun laws) or not (as they did with the proposal to fine internet companies 5% of global revenue for spreading misinformation).
🛠️ Tool of the Week 🛠️
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🧭 Strategy Tips 🧭
Intel Got Stuck in the Middle
Today's strategy tip is all about getting stuck in the middle.
Specifically, I want to spend a few extra minutes thinking about Gelsinger’s struggles at Intel, weaving in Porter’s Generic Strategies to make sense of it.
But before we go too far, let’s meet the framework.
According to Porter’s Generic Strategies, there are four paths to competitive advantage:
Cost Leadership – be the lowest cost option for the masses. This requires efficiency and discipline. Think Walmart.
Differentiation – be different and premium for the masses. This requires investing in differentiation. Think Apple.
Cost Focus – niche down your market, then be lowest cost. This requires saying “no” to some products and customers. Think Chic Fil A.
Differentiation Focus – niche down your market, then be different and premium. Think Hermès.
And to compete and win, Porter argues you need to commit to one of these strategies. If you don’t, and you try to do multiple, you can end up “stuck in the middle”.
So for Intel, how did they get stuck in the middle?
… Gelsinger wanted to cut costs, pioneer a new manufacturing processes, and challenge TSMC as the leading chip fab on Earth. We could argue about “for the masses” vs. niche there, but that’s definitely a cost strategy.
… Similarly, they wanted to invest heavily in R&D, invent new AI chips, and challenge Nvidia as the best chip design firm on Earth. That’s definitely a differentiation strategy.
By trying to do both at once, Intel and Gelsinger failed to do either.
To get unstuck, the new leaders will need to pick a direction. If it were me, I’d lean into the American dynamism angle – being the Robin to the Nvidia Batman in the US, and helping bring back American manufacturing (something the Trump administration would likely champion).
Looking forward to seeing which path they choose!
🌲 F/T Shoutouts 🌲
Is coding dead? — Thought-provoking post. It’s about being a dev when the consensus is that AI already made you extinct.
Sitting vs Standing — Fascinating, interative data on the jobs that require standing, and what else differentiates the “sitters” vs the “standers”.
The LinkedIn for AI Agents – This broke my brain… in a good way. Dharmesh (billionaire; co-founder of HubSpot) has a new company for AI agents.
A Billionaire's Guide To Going From $4/hour to $1 Billion Net Worth - Dharmesh Shah
The forest is growing.
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